After an icy Week Seven, only one team remains undefeated: the AFC's Negligent Discharges. Meanwhile, previously winless teams Whackers and Orangebloods finally put a 1 in the win column. Here are your standings and Week Seven OPR rankings. And here are the Week Seven OPR rankings. To recap, OPR stands for OIL Power Rating. It is based on the power rating created by the Oberon Mt. Fantasy Football League, which has been featured on ESPN's Fantasy Focus podcast and is used by many leagues across the country. From their website: The Formula The OIL's adjusted power rating takes everything measured by the Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula and then calculates how each team compares to the rest of the league for that season. So, what is measured is not raw data that fluctuates by season but, instead, how much better or worse a team is than the average team for that season. But first, the baseline raw power rating needs to be calculated. The Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula is best explained by its creator: (avg score x 6) + [(high score + low score) x 2] +[ (winning % x 200) x 2] The OIL has taken the Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula and added one wrinkle to better compare teams from different seasons. For example, a 2018 team might have the same record as a 2010 team but more points scored. On its face, the 2018 team is superior. But, if the league-wide scoring in 2018 is significantly more than it was in 2010, the 2010 team may have been more dominant. That is what we aim to discover using the adjusted OIL Power Rating. The formula for the adjusted OPR is:
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And then there was one—undefeated team, that is. After six weeks, the AFC's Negligent Discharges stand at 6-0. Formerly undefeated War Pony and the Arrogant Americans both suffered their first losses in Week Six. Meanwhile, only two winless teams remain: the NFC's Whackers and the PFC's Orangebloods. Click on the standings to view them on Yahoo. The NFC's Arrogant Americans and AFC's War Pony continue to jockey for first place in OPR with the 'Mericans leapfrogging War Pony in Week Six.
Three teams remain undefeated (War Pony, Negligent Discharges, Arrogant Americans) while another three remain winless (Whackers, Orangebloods, Boomtown Brawlers). Of eight teams who have begun an OIL season 5-0, all eight have made the playoffs. Of seven teams that started an OIL season 0-5, none have made the playoffs. But it's only five games in, and it's a long season. There's a first time for everything. Click on the standings photo to visit the league on Yahoo. War Pony has overtaken the Arrogant Americans for the top spot in the power rankings, while the Negligent Discharges are inching closer. The Doughboys are the highest-rated team with a loss. The Blue Falcons are just behind them at five. The first W-L record in the chart is expected record based on OPR. The second W-L record is the actual record.
After four weeks, only three unbeaten teams remain: the AFC's War Pony and Negligent Discharges and the NFC's Arrogant Americans. Meanwhile, the AFC's Redlegs, the NFC's Whackers, and the PFC's Orangebloods and Boomtown Brawlers are 0-4. Interestingly, both the Redlegs and Brawlers are two-time champions while the Whackers are former champions as well. The conclusion of Week Four also coincides with the initial release of OPR rankings. A team's OPR gives more context to its record: a team with a great record may rank much lower in OPR than teams with worse records, perhaps signaling a market correction to come. For example, the Nightmares are 3-1 but are ranked just below the 1-3 Havoc in OPR with an expected W-L record of 7-6, which is based on the correlation of OPR and final record over 20+ seasons of data.
For most of us, Week 13 constituted the end of the 2019 season. Congratulations to those still competing, and condolences to those that aren't (myself included). Below are the final regular season standings and OPR rankings. A new wrinkle to the OPR chart is the expected record of each team based on their OPR. The expected record is based on 299 individual seasons of data, forecasting a W/L record for each OPR.
I cannot remember a season where not a single team had clinched a playoff spot going into Rivalry Week, but that's the case in the NFC. In contrast, the AFC has four playoff spots locked up, while the PFC has two. Seeds 1-6 are all still up for grabs in the NFC. Crazy. You may notice a jump in OPR scores from previous weeks. Regrettably, you should know there was one error in an individual manager's raw OPR formula, and that skewed everything. I have found and fixed it, and the results are below.
There are only two games left, and yet only three teams out of 42 have clinched playoff spots: the AFC's Brewmasters and the PFC's Nightmares and Team Tadlock. No NFC team has clinched a playoff berth in what may be the most competitive seasons yet in that conference. There are new number-one teams in the AFC and NFC, while Team Tadlock continues to lead the PFC. The next two weeks include a lot of players on bye, so now is when teams with depth rise to the top. Team Tadlock now leads the OIL in OPR, with the Rebel Alliance and Nightmares right on their tail.
There are only five weeks until the playoffs, and the contenders are beginning to separate themselves from the pack. The AFC and PFC have 7-1 teams in first place, while the NFC's pace-setter is 6-2. Only one team remains winless: the AFC's Warm Bodies. Not only are the top two teams in OPR from the AFC, the two will meet this week in the OIL game of the week. The PFC's Team Tadlock is in third place while the highest NFC team is the Whackers in sixth place. The AFC three of the top five teams in the OIL, but, of the worst 14 teams in the OIL, half of them also hail from the AFC.
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March 2023
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